Doctors ‘often get it wrong’ when predicting how long terminally ill people have left to live

tunisante September 17, 2016 Health

More than 4,600 cases where doctors predicted survival were reviewed
A wide variation of errors were shown by both experienced and new GPs
They ranged from a 86 day underestimation to a 93 day overestimation
Accurate prognosis is needed to allow patients to get the right treatment

Stephen Matthews For Mailonline

Published:
18:00 EST, 13 September 2016

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Updated:
18:00 EST, 13 September 2016

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Doctors often fail to predict how long terminally ill people have left to live which can add to patients’ and their family’s distress, new research suggests.

A review of more than 4,600 medical notes where doctors predicted survival showed a wide variation in errors.

These ranged from an underestimate of 86 days to an overestimate of 93 days.

And it does not appear that more experienced or older doctors are any better at predicting when somebody will die than their younger counterparts.

More experienced or older doctors are no better at predicting when somebody will die than their younger counterparts, researchers from University College London claim

Experts say an accurate prognosis is essential to allow patients to get the appropriate care and treatment.

The review of existing research on the subject was carried out by researchers at University College London (UCL).

Further work is now being carried out to see if it may be possible to train doctors to make better predictions.

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Paddy Stone, professor of palliative and end-of-life care at UCL, said: ‘Knowing how much time is left can also better equip patients and their carers to make more informed choices about their care.

‘This research suggests that there is no simple way to identify which doctors are better at predicting survival.

‘Being more senior or more experienced does not necessarily make one a better prognosticator.’

Experts say an accurate prognosis is essential to allow patients to get the appropriate care

Stephanie Aiken, from the Royal College of Nursing, said: ‘For a dying person and their loved ones, uncertainty can make a very distressing time much harder to deal with.

‘Just as when we are born, the precise timing of death can be an inexact science.

‘As a society we have become much better at speaking about death and dying, and respecting and understanding people’s wishes at the end of their lives.

‘But there is clearly more to do to improve recognition of the signs that someone is dying, and supporting families with information.’

Janice Jones, whose father, Stephen Flint, died in 2011 from bile duct cancer, said: ‘We weren’t given an accurate timescale. The doctor was very non-committal.

‘While some people would prefer not to know, having an idea of how much time he had left would have made us feel more in control of the situation.

‘What hurt the most was that the doctor had seen dad just before the evening that he died and hadn’t given us any indication that it would be so soon.

‘Knowing would have allowed us to fill our last days with memories rather than get so bogged down in the routine responsibilities of caring for someone who is dying.’