Middle-Age Obesity "Will Lead to a Surge in Dementia Cases"


Several hundred thousand more people in Britain may be at risk of succumbing to dementia than previously thought. That is the stark conclusion of two health experts who will warn on Sunday that rising levels of obesity in middle age – a condition recently linked to increased risks of Alzheimer’s disease in later life – could produce a major jump in numbers of dementia sufferers by 2050.

“We know dementia levels are going to rise because our population is growing older and Alzheimer’s disease is an illness of old age,” said Tim Marsh, of UK Health Reform. “But it is clear that obesity is another factor that is putting more and more members of the population at risk. Recent research by several groups has indicated that individuals who are obese in their 40s and 50s have twice the average risk of getting dementia in their 70s.”

Marsh will present details of a joint study – which he carried out with his colleague Laura Webber – at the European Congress on Obesity on Sunday in Liverpool. They will focus on the implications of previous research that has already linked obesity with dementia. One such project – carried out by scientists led by Professor Archana Singh-Manoux, of the French medical institute Inserm – found that obesity had an increasingly negative impact on performance in a series of memory and reasoning tests taken by individuals over a period of 12 years. Another study found that people who are obese in middle age are nearly twice as likely to develop dementia.

The causal roots of this link are unclear. One theory suggests that proteins released by fatty tissue could be travelling through the bloodstream and affecting cells in the brain. Not every researcher agrees about the mechanism but most accept there is a connection between obesity and dementia.

“Research shows that obesity in midlife is a risk factor for dementia and these projections suggest that rising obesity in the UK could contribute to growing levels of dementia over the coming decades,” said Simon Ridley, of Alzheimer’s Research UK. “Dementia already has an enormous impact on individuals, families and communities and it is concerning to see that this could become even greater than previously predicted.”

Marsh said that obesity levels began to rise significantly in the 1980s and could already be contributing to increasing numbers of dementia cases that are being observed today. “What is worrying is the fact that obesity levels are now rising alarmingly and are therefore liable to cause dementia levels to rise far beyond previous estimates.”

In 2011, 24% of men and 26% women in England were rated as being obese. By the year 2050, levels could reach 46% in men and 31% in women, Marsh and Webber have calculated.

By 2050, about 5% of over-65s in the population were expected to be suffering from dementia, said Marsh. By factoring in the impact of rising obesity levels, that could rise to around 7%. “That is a rise of many hundred thousand people,” he said.

Jessica Smith, research officer at the Alzheimer’s Society, said: “It’s easy to see the immediate impact of piling on the pounds but we can’t afford to ignore the long-term effects. Evidence shows that obesity increases the risk of developing dementia.

“This study highlights the impact obesity will have on numbers of people with the condition in future.”

Ridley added: “We cannot change our age but this research suggests that lifestyle choices during midlife could help to keep our brains healthy as we age. Maintaining a healthy weight, eating a balanced diet, regular exercise and not smoking could all help to reduce the risk of dementia and are things that people can think about doing at any age.”

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