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Opining on childhood bipolar disorder

 

Obviously it’s overdiagnosed, then, right?

Our non-experts don’t seem to have read that study carefully; if they did, they could answer this question: What was the absolute rate of childhood bipolar disorder in 1995? 

0.01%.

What is a 40-fold increase?  0.4%.

When you start from practically nothing, and then diagnose a fraction of one percent of children with a diagnosis – is that overdiagnosis? 

What is the “true” rate of bipolar disorder in children? Based on our best epidemiological data, using standard DSM-IV criteria, the National Comorbidity Survey found that about 25% of all adult cases of bipolar disorder began before age 17, with 10% occuring before age 10. The lifetime rate was 5.1%.  What’s 10% of 5.1%?

0.5%.

So 0.5% of children and adolescents are diagnosable with bipolar disorder.

Now, is it overdiagnosis when 0.4% are diagnosed with a condition that occurs in 0.5% of the population?
 

This blogger strongly recommend’s Dr. Kaplan’s blog based on the faith that God and Nature allow 1.9% of 13 year-olds to have bipolar disorder (based on the National Comorbidity survey adolescent population epidemiological study), but zero percent of 12 year-olds.  I wonder what day of the year it is in which the switch is suddenly allowed metaphysically?  Readers can see my replies to this unscientific belief-system on that blog.