Covid UK: Experts call for change to 10-day isolation rule to stop Omicron paralysing Britain

December 18, 2021

Boris Johnson was today urged by health experts and business leaders to relax the 10-day quarantine rule for positive cases in favour of a test and release scheme to stop Omicron ‘disabling everything’.

At a press conference this afternoon, Nicola Sturgeon warned essential services could come under threat due to the number of people off work and suggested more restrictions may be needed to stop this from happening.

An analysis of official figures suggests Britain could reach up to 460,000 daily cases by Christmas Eve — forcing 2million people into isolation — if Omicron infections continue to increase as quickly as some scientists expect.

Such huge numbers could partially paralyse the country, causing huge disruption to businesses and threatening services including the NHS, police and national grid.

Today, the Fire Brigade Union said Covid cases have been ‘skyrocketing’ in the London service, claiming that almost 10% of operational firefighters have either tested positive or are self-isolating.

Meanwhile, some pubs and restaurants have already been forced to close either due to a shortage of staff or a lack of customers.

Today, a public health expert and business leader suggested staffing pressures could be eased by revisiting the current rules that require everyone who tests positive for Covid to isolate for a full 10 days.

Asked if the 10-day isolation period should be scrapped and changed to a test and release style scheme, Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious diseases expert at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline: ‘I think so.

‘The other big concern on top of rising cases and hospitalisations is that we could end up with so many people isolating at once we could run into some serious staffing issues in vital services.’

He suggested reducing the mandatory isolation period to five days and then making people take daily lateral flows.

‘Most people are not infectious for as long as 10 days, most are over their infectiousness by day five.

‘Omicron is spreading so widely now that there’s actually very little we can do to stop it at this point, but it’s crucial we keep society going.

‘Anything that reduces the harm on society and the economy without putting infected people into situations where they can infect even more people is a plus.’

Luke Johnson, a serial entrepreneur and chairman of The Bread Factory, said many businesses he has been in contact with had more than 10% of the workforce in isolation.

‘This means the economy and indeed the NHS risks grinding to a halt very soon,’ he told MailOnline. ‘The vast majority of those isolating aren’t sick and most with symptoms say it feels like a cold.

‘Ten days in isolation is too long. The tests are flawed, and asymptomatic spread is unproven.’

COVENT GARDEN… Left: 2019. Right: Today. The popular central London jaunt was quiet on Friday afternoon amid surging Covid cases

WESTFIELD… Left: 2019. Right: Today. The sprawling London shopping centre was dead on Friday despite being the run up to Christmas

A shopping street in Gloucester. Retailers face an uncertain Christmas as people choose to stay at home during the latest wave of Covid 19 infections

Gloucester Quays pictured today. Lots of people are deciding to stay away from pubs and restaurants to avoid catching Covid before Christmas

There were slightly more shoppers out and about in Manchester today – with many of them wearing face masks

A busy outdoor market in Bristol. Business leaders have warned about the damaging impact of a fall in high street footfall

Boris Johnson was today urged to relax the 10-day quarantine rule for positive cases in favour of a test and release scheme to stop Omicron ‘disabling everything’

A rammed Covent Garden in London in 2019 (November) and the same spot almost empty of visitors in a picture taken yesterday, when it should have been even more busy due to Christmas

An empty Westfield shopping centre in London today and during the Black Friday sales in November 2019

Is it REALLY safe to cut the 10-day quarantine?

How long are people infectious for?

Britain’s Covid’s self-isolation sentence could be halved to just five days, some academics have argued.

Data suggests roughly 98 per cent of virus transmission occurs either before people become ill, or within five days of symptoms starting.

Dr Muge Cevik, an infectious disease expert from the University of St Andrews, said earlier this year: ‘Given most transmission happens very early on, the isolation period could be much shorter for the cases.

‘Viral load peaks pretty quickly, so people are highly infectious within the first few days.’

How long can Covid patients test positive for?

Lateral flow tests, which offer results in as little as 15 minutes, work best for sniffing out the people who are most infectious.

They look for viral proteins called antigens in samples taken from the nose and throat.

But the kits are less sensitive than gold-standard PCRs, which sees swabs sent off to laboratories to be analysed for viral genetic material.

It means they are less likely to spot someone when they are infected, but also less likely to give a positive result when someone has gone past their peak infectiousness and have a lower viral load.

PCRs, on the other hand, are extremely sensitive and can pick up the presence of viral fragments long after the illness has cleared.

For this reason, a positive PCR result does not always mean someone is still contagious.

He added: ‘We are in grave danger of disabling everything – transport, supermarkets, food supply, hospitals etc if we persist with the 10 day rules for those who test positive or have been in contact with them.

‘We need to dramatically reduce the isolation period and allow release once tested negative. And if we decide that Omicron is much milder, then all isolation rules should be scrapped.’

Today, Rishi Sunak held crunch talks with hospitality chiefs after deciding to return earlier than planned from a work trip to California to discuss the crisis facing the industry.

Pictures from town centres last night and today showed people are continuing to stay away from town centres.

Meanwhile, the congestion level reported by TomTom in London at 8am was 40 per cent – the lowest level all week.

Traffic levels at the same period today were 33 per cent in Birmingham, 36 per cent in Manchester, 40 per cent in Liverpool, 34 per cent in Sheffield, 46 per cent in Leeds and 28 per cent in Newcastle.

Mr Sunak had been in the US on a ‘long-planned’ Government trip to meet tech bosses but his timing has attracted criticism.

He met hospitality leaders yesterday via Zoom but had to miss one roundtable event because it clashed with a scheduled call with US healthcare bosses.

This prompted one of the British executives to quip to the FT that he was too busy drinking ‘organic kale smoothies’.

Mr Sunak told CNN he is holding in-person talks today after cutting short his visit. ‘I understand this is a concerning time for business leaders across the country,’ he said.

‘I’ve been in touch with industry business leaders and it’s why I’ve curtailed my trip and will be leaving earlier tonight.’

The Chancellor insisted ministers were not telling people to cancel their Christmas events, adding: ‘The situation is very different to what we’ve done and encountered before.

‘We’re not telling people to cancel things, we’re not closing down businesses.’

The hospitality sector is demanding the Government bring forward fresh financial support after the spread of the variant and the latest Covid advice to be cautious ahead of Christmas prompted a wave of booking cancellations.

Bosses expect the final total to hit £4billion of lost takings.

But Mr Sunak insisted ministers were already helping, telling the BBC: ‘Until spring next year most businesses are only paying a quarter of their business rates bill, they are benefitting from a reduced rate of VAT all the way through to next spring, and thirdly there is about a quarter of a billion pounds of cash sitting with local authorities to support those businesses.’

Retail sales accelerated in November… but is there an Omicron crash coming?

UK retail sales picked up pace in November as shoppers hit the high street for early Christmas shopping and Black Friday, according to official figures. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said retail sales volumes increased by 1.4% for the month, accelerating from a 0.8% increase in October.

The reading was better than expected, with analysts having forecast that growth would remain steady at 0.8%. The ONS said sales volumes across the sector were now 7.2% higher than their pre-pandemic levels from February 2020.

November was boosted by non-food sales in stores, which lifted by 2% for the month. It highlighted that this was particularly boosted by 2.9% growth in sales at clothing stores, which saw sales surpass pre-pandemic levels for the first time.

Heather Bovill, deputy director for surveys and economic indicators at the ONS, said: ‘Retail sales picked up in November, boosted by strong Black Friday and pre-Christmas trading. Clothing stores fared particularly well and have exceeded their pre-pandemic level for the first time.’

Pubs and restaurants have now started closing early for Christmas after they were hit by a ‘double whammy’ of staff absences and plummeting consumer confidence.

Some restaurants said they had ‘no option’ but to shut because so many of their staff have caught coronavirus and have had to isolate amid fears the problem will worsen as the ‘tidal wave’ of infections surges across the country.

Mr Sunak and Chief Secretary to the Treasury Simon Clarke held calls yesterday with firms including Prezzo, Black Sheep Brewery, Nando’s, Greene King, Whitbread and Adnams.

Labour has called on the Government to announce a new support package for the sector but ministers are yet to commit to providing any extra cash.

It is feared that the UK could be recording hundreds of thousands of daily Covid cases by Christmas Eve as Omicron continues to surge.

That could force millions of Brits into isolation, potentially causing huge disruption to the workforce and to key industries.

The hospitality industry has accused Boris Johnson of imposing a ‘lockdown by stealth’ after Professor Chris Whitty urged people to limit socialising in the coming days.

Mr Johnson denied the claim yesterday, telling reporters: ‘We’re not saying that we want to cancel stuff, we’re not locking stuff down, and the fastest route back to normality is to get boosted.’

Some small pubs and restaurants are deciding it is better to shut than stay open, either because lots of their staff have contracted Covid and are not available, or because nearly all their bookings have been cancelled. However, most venues remain open and very few big chains have shut.

Yesterday, society favourite Evelyn’s Table in London’s Soho put its closure down to ‘members of our core team having to isolate’.