Fewer people are now dying than expected in the South West and North East

Fewer people died than expected in two regions of England during the final week of February, official figures revealed today.  

Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showed there were 1,230 deaths from all causes in the South West over the seven-day spell to February 26 — 2.8 per cent fewer than expected for the time of year. The North East saw a 3.2 per cent drop, with 614 fatalities registered. 

Data also showed deaths from all causes in care homes have dropped below average, with the number of Covid victims having fallen by a third in a week.

Experts estimate the expected death toll from all causes by analysing the numbers recorded in the same seven-day periods over the past five years. Anything above average would be considered ‘excess deaths’. 

But scientists say levels being below normal does not mean Covid has been wiped out, and may simply be down to the pandemic front-loading deaths so that deaths appear lower now. 

ONS data also showed 2,914 deaths linked to Covid were recorded in England and Wales — fewer than one in four of all fatalities and 65 per cent below the weekly figure for the darkest part of the second wave in January.  

ONS death figures lag behind the daily tallies, which began falling at the end of January. Statisticians analyse death certificates to identify exactly how many Covid was to blame for. There is a delay of about three weeks between someone getting infected with the virus and succumbing to the disease, meaning it takes time for a dip in cases to show up in death figures. 

PROFESSOR CHRIS WHITTY WARNS A THIRD WAVE OF COVID IS INEVITABLE THIS YEAR 

Chris Whitty today warned a deadly third wave of coronavirus is inevitable later this year as he defended England’s ultra-cautious roadmap out of lockdown.

The chief medical officer said ‘all the modelling’ suggests cases will spike at some point after restrictions are eased, despite uptake of the vaccines being high.

He claimed it was ‘perfectly realistic’ that tens of thousands more Brits could be killed by the virus, pointing out that flu claims up to 20,000 lives during a bad year.

Batting away calls for lockdown to be loosened sooner now the epidemic has been squashed to pre-second wave levels, he warned: ‘If you open up too fast, a lot more people die – a lot more people die.’

Professor Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance, England’s chief scientific adviser, are being quizzed by MPs on the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee this morning.

Number 10 has promised to follow the data, not dates, but has set strict five-week intervals between each phase of the plan. 

The ONS data showed the total number of deaths from all causes in England and Wales was 12,614, nine per cent above the five-year average expected of 11,548.  

Covid deaths were at their lowest levels since the week ending December 25, when 2,912 deaths involving the virus were recorded. The virus was also linked to 23 per cent of all fatalities in the most recent week.

Influenza and pneumonia were recorded as being linked to 2,770 deaths.

Professor Kevin McConway, a statistician at the Open University, said it was a ‘good sign’ that deaths had fallen below the five-year average in two regions of England.

‘ONS report that it’s the first time since the week ending October 23 last year that deaths in any English region have been below average,’ he said.

‘But the position does differ a lot across regions – in the West Midlands, deaths were 20 per cent above average, and they were 17 per cent higher than average in London. 

He added: ‘The number of deaths that don’t involve Covid remain considerably below the five-year average – about 1,800 below, in the most recent week. That’s to be expected. 

‘Lockdowns decrease the transmission of other respiratory diseases such as flu, and not just Covid, and can sometimes reduce deaths from other causes too, such as road deaths if people aren’t travelling so much. 

‘Also, sadly, some of the people who might otherwise have died in the latest week would have been taken earlier by Covid, maybe during last year.  

‘Deaths not involving Covid are likely to remain somewhat below their average level for some time, so it’s quite possible that in maybe two or three weeks we might see deaths from all causes (including Covid-19) going below the five-year average.’

The West Midlands was the worst-hit region in England in the week to February 26, after recording 231 more  deaths than expected at this time of year (19 per cent above average). It suffered 1,401 fatalities compared to the 1,170 predicted.

It was followed by London, where there were 184 more deaths than expected (17.1 per cent above average), and the East Midlands, where there were 130 more than expected (13.5 per cent above average).

In Wales there were 35 more deaths than expected at this time of year, after they recorded 759 fatalities compared to the 724 predicted.

All regions of England recorded fewer fatalities linked to the virus than they did during the previous week for the fourth week in a row.

The most Covid deaths occurred in hospitals (2,080), followed by care homes (510), private homes (238) and hospices (65).

• End of Covid deaths crisis by Easter? Britain’s daily… Labour wants No10 to hold regular ‘germ games’ to prepare… Professor Chris Whitty warns a third wave of Covid is… Schools Minister Nick Gibb insists exams WILL return… NHS boss Sir Simon Stevens admits medics were originally… Together at last! Tears of joy as families are reunited with…

Cambridge University statistician Professor David Spiegelhalter predicted last week deaths from all causes would fall below average by the end of March in England and Wales. 

‘I think almost certainly by the end of this month our actual overall death rate (fatalities from all causes including the virus) will be less than the average of the last five years,’ he said last week.

‘The big difference this year is that there’s no flu. Normally up to 25,000 people might die of flu in the winter, but it’s just not happening this year.

‘What we’ve actually seen is record levels of a lack of flu, and this was in a sense entirely predictable. It’s what happened in the Southern hemisphere countries over their winter, our summer, and is a direct effect of the measures we’re taking against Covid.

‘But there is another cause, which is that we did have 60,000 excess deaths back in the spring, in many old and vulnerable people and many of those would have survived until now.

‘And so the lack of deaths we’re seeing, some of them are because they’ve already died early.’