Ovulation Prediction Is Messy And Difficult. It Shouldn’t Be.

The research team is currently conducting another, larger study, following 200 women over the course of six months to further fine-tune the algorithm and add more data use cases. But despite the fact that they’ve yet to publish their research (they’ve presented it at the Swiss and German ob-gyn conferences and to the American Society of Reproductive Medicine), Ava’s current two- to three-month waiting list speaks to the need for a device like it.

“For us, the convenience is important,” said Ava VP of data science Lisa Falco. “[The Ava] also reacts earlier. You can be a bit more relaxed about it.” Measuring nine parameters also makes the Ava’s predictions more robust, rather than relying on a urine or temperature test that uses one measurement.

After testing the Ava for two weeks, I can testify that it is much, much easier to use than a fertility monitor or OPKs. You don’t have to put off using the restroom within a certain time frame, or manually record data in an app. Instead, you take off the bracelet in the morning, plug it in next to your iPhone at your convenience, and it wirelessly syncs within seconds.

The Ava’s one major drawback is that at the moment, it works only for women with regular menstrual cycles between 24 and 35 days. Women with irregular cycles or those with polycystic ovary syndrome would see little benefit. “This is where we want to become stronger,” says Falco.

Signs of Life

Another device that was released this year, the Knowhen, is effective for women with irregular cycles or medical conditions. The Knowhen is a pocket-sized personal microscope that detects ovulation through a process called ferning.

Each morning, you place a drop of saliva on the lens. After it dries, you look at the pattern through the microscope. The rise in estrogen that precedes ovulation also triggers a rise in sodium chloride in your saliva. When you start the ovulation process, the salt crystallizes into a distinctive fern pattern, visible through the lens.

“I firmly believe that infertility is not an epidemic. It’s a lack of knowledge,” Knowhen founder and CEO Helen Denise said. “Sometimes I meet women who say that something is wrong with the microscope, that they never see the ferning. It’s not the microscope. It’s you. If you have PCOS or a thyroid problem, we can help you diagnose it even earlier or see a doctor in time,” before spending months in fruitless attempts at conception.

People have been using ferning microscopes for a long time, but Knowhen is product that hopes to make the technique more accessible. Placing a drop of saliva on the pocket-sized lens and waiting for it to dry is a simpler and slightly more sanitary method of testing than peeing in a cup while still half-asleep. Timing is also less of an issue. But the Knowhen is also prone to user error. You have to remember to use a spit drop first thing in the morning, before eating or drinking. Failing to clean the lens beforehand, or using a spit drop that has bubbles, can also confound the results.

We’re Due

What’s clear is that, while much of the market has been focused on improving access to reproductive technologies like in-vitro fertilization and egg freezing, there is plenty of room in a different fertility tech space as well.

In an age where an attractive, waterproof watch can monitor our light and deep sleep cycles and receive texts, it is absurd that so many women rely on technology from the 1970s for such an important, intimate process. Even if you discount the financial gains, there are other tremendous rewards.

“We had this really big one success story of one of our users,” Falco said. “According to the calendar method, she wouldn’t have been in the fertile window. She used the Ava one day earlier than she thought, because her husband was going away somewhere. We found out [she was pregnant] before her husband did.”

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