It’s Very Likely That Brock Turner Will Commit Another Sexual Assault

There are many problems with this statement, but we’re going to focus on one part in particular: the idea that Turner’s offense was a one-off and that he poses no risk to others. New data highlights just how blatantly false that “logic” is. Researchers at Case Western Reserve University’s Begun Center for Violence Prevention and Education have been evaluating almost 5,000 previously untested rape kits in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, and of the 243 kits that have been studied so far, 51 percent belonged to serial offenders. What’s more, out of the serial offenders who were ID’d, 26 percent had been arrested for a sexual assault in the past, and a whopping 60 percent were later arrested for a different sexual assault (in addition to the one from the tested kit).

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In a statement, Rachel Lovell, Ph.D., a senior research associate who worked on the project, explained that the findings “suggest it is very likely that a sexual offender has either previously sexually assaulted or will offend again in the future.” In other words, there is absolutely zero reason to assume that Turner’s offense was some kind of singular, alcohol-driven fluke (and BTW, that’s still assault, folks!). So while the judge is basically giving him a pass and his dad excuses the assault as “only 20 minutes of action,” statistically, Turner is actually very likely to do it again.