New calculator can predict a couple’s chance of conceiving a baby

November 17, 2016

Outcome Prediction in Subfertility gives couples’ a percentage score
It takes into account the age of a woman and if she has ovulation problems
University of Aberdeen researchers developed the tool based on IVF data
Experts believe the calculator could give many couples a realistic estimate
You can use the tool to predict your own success here

Stephen Matthews For Mailonline

Published:
03:43 EST, 17 November 2016

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Updated:
03:53 EST, 17 November 2016

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A new ‘IVF calculator’ can predict a couple’s success of conceiving a baby, scientists claim.

The tool, called Outcome Prediction in Subfertility, gives a percentage score of how successful it is likely to be based on multiple factors.

It takes into account the age of a woman, how many years she has been trying to conceive and whether she has an ovulation problem.

Experts believe the calculator could ‘help to shape expectations’ of whether the fertility treatment could work for many couples.

The tool, called Outcome Prediction in Subfertility, gives a percentage score of how successful IVF is likely to be based on multiple factors

The tool, which can be used by doctors or people seeking IVF, is based on data from the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) which collects information on all licensed fertility treatments in the UK.

University of Aberdeen researchers analysed data from all women who started IVF and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) in the UK from 1999 to 2008 using their own eggs and partner’s sperm.

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Writing in The BMJ, they found of 114,000 women who completed almost 185,000 cycles of treatment, 29.1 per cent had a live birth following their first cycle.

And 43 per cent had a baby following six cycles of treatment.

They found that the chances of a couple having a baby declined after the woman reached the age of 30 and decreased with increasing duration of infertility.

The data was then put into the calculator to predict IVF success.

It takes into account the age of a woman, how many years she has been trying to conceive and whether she has an ovulation problem

For example, the calculator predicts that a 30-year-old woman with two years of unexplained infertility has a 46 per cent chance of having a live birth from the first complete cycle of IVF.

While she has a 79 per cent chance over three complete cycles.

Professor Adam Balen, chairman of the British Fertility Society, said: ‘This is an important paper which analyses the HFEA database to calculate prediction models for success based upon baseline characteristics and the data collected during the treatment.

‘The database is huge and so the information gathered is clinically relevant.

‘It is important to remember that treatment should be individualised to the patients’ particular needs and profile and it can still be difficult to accurately predict the outcome.’

The calculator can be found at w3.abdn.ac.uk/clsm/opis