Where is Zika and will it reach YOU? New interactive maps reveal where the virus has already struck, how far it could spread and which states are safe

July 21, 2016

As increasing numbers of Zika infections are reported across America, worried people will be asking how far the virus will spread and whether they are at risk.

At least 1,300 people have been diagnosed with Zika in the US – including 400 pregnant women and seven babies – contracted from foreign mosquitoes, sex or pregnancy.

Mosquitoes in the US may carry the virus after a woman in Miami became infected without travelling abroad – health officials have not yet ruled out that she had sex with an infected person.

Control teams are now scrambling to test the native mosquito population to confirm whether Zika has indeed arrived.

To put the year-long spread into context, this new sets of interactive graphics shows where Zika is being treated, how many patients are infected, and which cities are at risk.

They also calculate the range of the two Zika-carrying mosquitoes – Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus – showing that some states have zero chance of an epidemic.

WHERE ZIKA HAS STRUCK?

The first graphic, developed by Graphiq using CDC data, is a map of Zika infections, showing the number of diagnoses in each state as of this week, not including the latest diagnoses in Miami and Utah.

It shows New York currently has the most cases with 345, while Florida has 290.

Only five states have not reported Zika: Alaska, Wyoming, Idaho, North Dakota and South Dakota.

Texas and California have 69 cases each.

HOW FAR CAN ZIKA-CARRYING MOSQUITOES GO?

Two graphics map out the range of the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes.

The Aedes aegypti – which spreads other tropical diseases like dengue fever, chikungunya and yellow fever – is most commonly associated with Zika. It thrives in warm climates.

Its cousin, the Aedes albopictus has also been linked to Zika. Worryingly for Americans in northern states, this species can survive in cooler temperatures.

Consequently, the albopictus has a much further reach than the aegypti.

Based on data from the CDC, the albopictus – unlike the aegypti – has the potential to touch the upper and outer reaches of the Midwest (Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Colorado), all of the Northeast (Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine), and Hawaii.

The only state the aegypti can reach which the albopictus cannot is Utah.

However, there are 10 states with neither of the two species could reach: Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Alaska.

Though five of these states have reported case of Zika infections, it would be highly unlikely that Zika-carrying mosquitoes could thrive there.

Any spread would be minimal.

It could happen through childbirth, sexual transmission, or the highly unlikely odd bite.

But the reason Zika spreads so furiously is down to the feeding nature of the Aedes mosquitos, which bite numerous people in quick succession.

Unlike some other types of mosquitos, Aedes mosquitos are active during the daytime.

They are most active during mid-morning and then again between late afternoon and nightfall.

IS YOUR CITY AT RISK?

The final map shows 50 major cities across the states, and calculates how likely they are to be hit with a Zika epidemic based on data from the Public Library of Science (PLOS).

The cities are not the most likely targets, but are designed to show a range of risk, on a scale of one to 10.

They are all within the known range of Zika-carrying mosquitoes.

Miami is the only city with a 10 out of 10 risk of an outbreak.

Sat on the southern coast, it is the perfect climate for the Aedes mosquito, which has spread Zika across Central and South America.

Tampa’s chance of a Zika outbreak is 9.1 out of 10; Orlando’s is 9.4 out of 10.

No other cities are above 9.

New York City’s risk is 8.5 out of 10, according to the data.

Houston, Jacksonville, Atlanta, and Charleston all have a risk higher than 8 out of 10.

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