Zika virus to end in 2 years because it ‘will run out of people’ to infect’ says ICL

The Zika epidemic is almost over, scientists claim.

They predict the virus, which is rife in Brazil and other parts of South and Central America, will burn itself out in two to three years.

However, it will strike again, they warn. 

Scientists at Imperial College London used all available data on Zika plus information about similar infections to forecast the disease’s spread.

Scientists believe the Zika virus – which is rife in Central and South America – will burn itself out in two years

They say the epidemic, which is blamed for thousands of babies being born with underdeveloped and damaged brains, cannot be contained.

However, it is likely to end within two to three years because the virus will have run out of people to infect.

Professor Neil Ferguson, the study’s lead author, said: ‘The current explosive epidemic will burn itself out due to a phenomenon called herd immunity.

‘Because the virus is unable to infect the same person twice – thanks to the immune system generating antibodies to kill it – the epidemic reaches a stage where there are too few people left to infect for transmission to be sustained.

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‘Using our model, we predict large-scale transmission will not restart for at least another ten years – until there is a new generation in the population who have not been exposed to the Zika virus.’

Writing in the journal Science, the professor said the authorities had left it too late to control the current outbreak.

And, in any case, measures that slow the disease’s spread could just prolong the outbreak, because it will take longer for the virus to run out of people to infect.

Professor Ferguson added: ‘In a worst case scenario Zika would become endemic in Latin America in the long-term, which would mean smaller, frequent outbreaks.

They say the epidemic, which is blamed for thousands of babies being born with underdeveloped and damaged brains, cannot be contained and will run out of people to infect (stock)

‘A key issue is we don’t understand why the Zika virus affected Latin America in such an explosive way.

‘One possibility is climate may have in some way aided spread of the virus.

‘Genetic mutation of the virus might also have played a role, although early data currently give limited support for this hypothesis.

‘One research priority is to fully understand the extent of Zika transmission, and what proportion of people in Latin America – and across the globe have been infected.

‘There are currently more questions surrounding Zika than answers – and only through a coordinated global research effort will we find the answers we desperately need.’

The Zika virus was first discovered in Uganda 70 years ago but it has taken until now for its dangers to be revealed.

Usually symptomless in adults, caught in pregnancy it can lead to microcephaly in which the child is born with an abnormally small head and under-developed brain.

This can be deadly, and youngsters that do survive face fits, hearing loss and stunted intelligence.

Golfers including Rory McIlroy (left) have pulled out of the Olympics while heptathlete Jessica Ennis-Hill (right) has said she may skip the training camp to minimise the chances of her getting the disease

The World Health Organisation has declared the disease’s rise a public health emergency and pregnant women have been warned not to travel to infected areas.

There have been calls for the Olympics to be moved from Brazil and many of the world’s leading golfers have pulled out of the event.

Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy all cited fears over the Zika virus.

Long jumper Greg Rutherford, who won gold for Team GB in London in 2012, has frozen a sample of his sperm.

He has a young son with girlfriend Susie Verill and they would like to have more children.

Miss Verill, who will cheer him on from home, said: ‘The Zika news has caused no end of concern.

‘We’d love to have more children and with research in its infancy, I wouldn’t want to put myself in a situation which could have been prevented.’

And heptathlete Jessica Ennis-Hill has said she may skip the Olympic training camp to minimise her time in Brazil.  

Zika-damaged babies may appear normal: Fifth of infected infants have brain abnormalities but DON’T have small heads 

Babies with brains damaged by Zika may appear normal, scientists warn.

Zika has been linked to microcephaly – a condition which causes infants to be born with tiny brains and heads – and doctors checking for the disease look for this tell-tale sign.

However, a new study found a fifth of babies had normal-sized heads but had brain abnormalities associated with a Zika infection.

Therefore, medics should check for signs and symptoms of brain abnormalities – regardless of the baby’s head circumference – when screening newborns for the virus, researchers said. 

Writing in The Lancet, the paper’s lead author, Professor Cesar Victora, from the Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Brazil, said: ‘Most suspected cases ended up being normal newborn babies with small heads.

‘However, one in five definite or probable Zika cases had head circumference values in the normal range.

‘Therefore, the current focus on microcephaly screening alone is too narrow.’