HMN 2025: Can the astrologist surpass random opportunities?

Last year we ran research It tests whether the solar signs of astrology (scorpions and goat seats) can predict 37 facts about people’s lives, such as educational levels and close friends. We have a reasonable ability to predict many of these facts, but the signs of zodiac could not predict one of them.

When we published the results, some astrologers were angry with us. They pointed out that the sun was just tabloid astrology. The astrologer uses a much more complex system related to the entire astrology chart.

And they were right! Inspired by their criticism, we enlisted six astrologers and helped them design new studies to test astrology themselves rather than stupid tabloid versions practiced by astrologers. To make the challenge more interesting, we have provided $ 1,000 award to the first astrager who can perform well in the exam.

Can the astrologer do better than a chance when predicting someone’s personality?

Since there are many types of astrology, this study has tried to test almost everyone. In other words, a person’s birth chart (reflecting the location of the heavenly body at the time of birth) provides insight into the person’s personality. Or life.

testAnyone can use it openly and publicly to test their own astrology. It consists of 12 multiple choice questions. Participants show a lot of information about the actual person’s life. It reflects a real person’s answer to 43 different questions. These questions were chosen to ask the astrologists if they wanted to guess the person’s astrology chart correctly.

Here are some examples of information provided for each real person.

Along with this information about each real person, the astrologers have five astrology charts. Only one of these was his actual birth chart (depending on the date of birth, time and location), and the other was the “bait” chart created according to any date, time and location. The mission of the astrology was to decide which of these five charts are real.

An example of the decision that the astrologers must get is:

Overall, we believed that 152 astrologers would do better than coincidence in our mission. We excluded participants who lacked astrology and participants who did not believe that they would perform better in tasks than random guesses.

A randomly guessing person will correctly answer only 2.4 of the 12 questions on average. Despite the high level of trust in performance, the astrology as a group is better than the opportunity, the distribution of results is very similar to yours. ‘D must be randomly guessed. And on average, the number of charts that matched correctly was not much different from random guesses.

A single astrologist did not get more than five out of 12. Even after the work was completed, it was believed that more than half of the astronauts had a correct answer.

More experiences in astrology were statistically related to better performance, and the astrologers with the most experiences were not better than the rest.

Do the astrologers agree with each other?

Very surprisingly, there was little agreement between the astrologists about what kind of shot chart belongs to each research topic. The astrologers who saw the biggest expertise were the highest consensus, but they still agreed to only 28 %of the time, but they would have agreed at 20 %if they chose the chart randomly.

The consensus rate between the viscosity range from about 21 %to 28 %, depending on the experience level. This suggests that there is little agreement among the viscousists and even those with high levels of experiences when interpreting the same chart.

The final thought of scientific testing of astrology

This study performs fair tests on astrology through partnerships with astrologers, showing support for astrology, and lack of support if it is not astrology. If astrology is effective, I would like to believe that it will not work if it does not work if it does not work. And we tried to design and carry out this study in a way that reflects the true search for the truth.

In other words, all individual studies are not definitive evidence, but only powerful evidence related to claims. All studies, including this study, must be interpreted in the context of other evidence. And no matter how well designed, the study of astrology cannot prove that there is no one somewhere with astrology. But we think that this research provides an important reason for this research to suspect the astrologist’s claim.

You can find much more details and results for this study. here.