- Virus has infected at least 71 million people since epidemic began in 1981
- Shows that virus travelled in ‘waves’ to Europe several times
- Areas in Europe stayed isolated until key historic events like Iron Curtain
- Researchers call for a global HIV policy to help prevent further spread
Katharine Sharpe For Mail Online
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Scientists have mapped how different types of the HIV virus spread across the world.
The virus has infected at least 71 million people around the world since the beginning of its epidemic in 1981.
But until now, there was no clear picture of how it spread across the globe after arriving in the US in the 1970s.
The international team from the European Society for Translational Antiviral Research (ESAR) analysed infection data from the time.
Global migration patterns of HIV-1 subtype B estimated by statistical phylogeography under the geographical grouping strategy. The colours indicate different geographic regions (highlighted countries) from which HIV-1 sequences were available. Arrows indicate the direction of subtype B spread
They showed that a particular strain of HIV, subtype B, spread from the US to Europe in ‘waves’.
However, other subtypes stayed isolated within central and Eastern Europe without spreading – until the 1990s, when political change meant a greater range of movement across borders.
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Another pattern identified was the fact that the UK, France and Switzerland tended to exchange the virus more with non-European countries than European ones.
This is possibly because of ‘geopolitical events’ after World War 2, such as the rise and fall of the Iron Curtain which divided the former Soviet bloc from Europe.
HOW HIV SPREAD IN ‘WAVES’
Viruses are so dangerous because they constantly replicate themselves and spread – meaning that they can quickly become hard to control.
The ‘waves’ of HIV from the US to Europe will have occurred by a large group of people moving at one time.
As infection rates peaked and eventually declined again in Europe when brought over, the virus would still be replicating back in the US.
Another movement of people from the US would then bring it to Europe again – hence the comparison to the repetitive movement of a wave in the sea.
When the virus stayed contained in certain areas of Europe, there was no movement or ‘waves’ between countries – so it was referred to as being in isolation, with no contact with other countries.
These countries also had traditional trade links with their non-European colonies, so frequent travel would have allowed the spread further.
Dr Gkikas Magiorkinis, from the department of Zoology at Oxford University, explained the pattern.
‘One of our main findings is that North America was spreading the virus much more than importing it, whereas Europe was absorbing the infection,’ he said.
Changes to trade, migration and tourism all influenced the spread of HIV around the world.
Assistant professor Dimitrios Paraskevis, from the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, pointed out the clear split between types of virus in Eastern and Western Europe
‘It probably has to do with the political situation on the continent,’ he said.
‘These distinct strains in Eastern and Western Europe were able to connect again in the 1990s once movement became less curtailed.’
The researchers say that this map highlights the need for HIV policy to operate at a global and not national level, as the spread between countries is so hard to prevent.
The researchers point out the influence of a country can mean it is more likely to spread, as it has more contact with other nations.
‘This study shows how important it is that policies to prevent the spread of infections are set up on a global scale,’ said Professor Paraskevis.
‘And that we understand how – much like in economics – an epidemic in an influential country is likely to have an effect in almost every other part of the world.’
Changes to trade, migration and tourism all influenced the spread of HIV around the world, experts say
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