Northeastern University find older people could still have ‘creative breakthroughs’
- Researchers looked at publications by more than 10,000 scientists
- The biggest breakthrough was as likely to be a scientist’s first paper as their last
- The researchers hope their findings could help identify and nurture individuals who are poised to make big discoveries
Shivali Best For Mailonline
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Albert Einstein once commented that ‘a person who has not made his great contribution to science before the age of 30 will never do so.’
But, it seems that the mathematical genius may have got his prediction wrong.
A new study suggests that age has little to do with creative breakthroughs, and instead, it is the will to keep trying that corresponds with great discoveries.
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A new study suggests that age has little to do with creative breakthroughs, and many people in their older years are just as creative. From left to right is David Thouless, Duncan Haldane and J. Michael Kosterlitz this year’s Nobel Prize winners in physics – who are all over age 65
STUDYING SUCCESS
The researchers looked at publications by more than 10,000 scientists, whose careers spanned at least 20 years.
To determine what drove success, they set out three contributing variables: luck, productivity, and magnitude of sustainable impact.
Luck mostly came from trying again and again.
Productivity was based on how many papers each scientist had published.
And sustainable impact, which the researchers called ‘Q’, reflected the number of times each paper had been cited in another study.
The researchers arranged the papers into chronological order and calculated at what point in each scientist’s career the highest-??impact paper had appeared.
The results showed that the biggest breakthrough was just as likely to be a scientist’s first paper as his or her last one.
The research comes from Northeastern University in Boston, and suggests that scientists can achieve success at any point in their careers – and achieve it repeatedly – as long as they keep trying.
Professor Albert-????László Barabasi, who led the study, said: ‘Understanding the laws and the patterns that govern our careers could significantly enhance scientific output.
‘It may also help identify and nurture individuals who are poised to make big discoveries and encourage the scientific community to offer them the resources and opportunity to do so.’
The researchers looked at publications by more than 10,000 scientists, whose careers spanned at least 20 years.
To determine what drove success, they set out three contributing variables: luck, productivity, and magnitude of sustainable impact.
Luck mostly came from trying again and again.
Dr Roberta Sinatra, first-author of the study, said: ‘Think of buying lottery tickets or rolling a die. The more times you try, the better your chances.’
Productivity was based on how many papers each scientist had published.
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2016 NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS BY AGE
This year’s Nobel Prize winners were all over the age of 65:
– Duncan Haldane – 65
– J. Michael Kosterlitz – 73
– David J. Thouless – 82
– Jean-Pierre Sauvage – 72
– Fraser Stoddart – 74
– Bernard L. Feringa – 65
– Yoshinori Ohsumi – 71
And sustainable impact, which the researchers called ‘Q’, reflected the number of times each paper had been cited in another study.
Professor Barabasi said: ‘The Q factor captures a combination of ability, education, and knowledge.
‘That is, how good is a scientist at picking an idea and turning it into a discovery.’
The researchers arranged the papers into chronological order and calculated at what point in each scientist’s career the highest-??impact paper had appeared.
The results showed that the biggest breakthrough was just as likely to be a scientist’s first paper as his or her last one.
Professor Barabasi said: ‘What matters is not the timing of discoveries that could affect future generations but that they happened.
‘Understanding that good scientists, if they have the resources to stay productive, could generate future big discoveries, independent of age, is essential for us to move forward in thinking about how to boost science.’
Albert Einstein once commented that ‘a person who has not made his great contribution to science before the age of 30 will never do so.’ But the study suggests that he may have got his prediction wrong
While the results are promising for older scientists, the researchers are careful to point out that they are measuring success, not performance.
Dr Sinatra said: ‘This is not a measure of the quality of a scientist.
‘It is a mathematical parameter – a measure of how the scientific community perceives an individual’s output.’
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